In the Arab world the more things stay the same the worse they get. People’s expectations are growing much faster than real improvement in their lives. Meanwhile, leaders and governments suffer from a rot at the core which is spreading and perpetrating their inability to respond to people’s needs and wishes.

Historically, the divide between these expectations and what people get eventually produces a breakdown in the social order, what often leading to a revolution. In fact, judged by the increasing level of anti-government sentiment throughout the Middle East, the region has been in a state of revolution for a few years now.

Judging countries by their most pressing problems, 2006 promises more of the same. Iraq is a land where hope is as rare as high-carat diamonds. The Americans and their allies have been promising to stabilise Iraq since their April 2003 arrival. But tens of thousands of dead and wounded Iraqis and over 2,000 American casualties later, the prospects favour a continued strong anti-American insurgency and a weak central government in Baghdad. Moreover, America’s unjustified hope that Iraq will become a functioning democracy for other Arab countries to emulate is nothing but a mirage. Only 2% of Iraqis support an American presence in their country, and we shouldn’t confuse their love for democracy with a love for America.

And it all began with America choosing the wrong people to replace Saddam: Ahmed Chalabi, a convicted embezzler and Iyad Alawi, a one-time Saddam enforcer. Time has exposed them as feckless, corrupt and without any following on street level.

Saudi Arabia’s problems aren’t as near the surface as those of Iraq, but the country is facing structural, social and political problems and a divided royal family which can no longer hold the country together. True the dramatic increase in the price of oil has left the country swimming in a sea of ready cash but the government doesn’t have the wherewithal to share this wealth with the people nor would that guarantee a solution for their problems.

Over half the population is under the age of 20. Unemployment among recent college graduates is over 25%. The net yearly increase in population is over 4%. The royal family cannot curb its profligate ways and more and more people are objecting to this and are forming Islamic fundamentalist groups which promise a violent correction of royal behaviour.

The unwieldy succession process is weakening the grip of the royal family on power. In fact, there is an open rebellion in Saudi Arabia and shoot-outs between the security forces and bands of armed Islamists have become a regular occurrence.

The Arab-Israeli conflict is in worse shape than at any time since the 1993 Oslo Peace Accord. Palestinian Authority President Abu Mazen and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon are too weak to sign a comprehensive peace agreement and retain their leadership positions. They are resorting to internal scheming and pretensions of change presenting them as moves forward. The Bush administration lacks the commitment or the visionaries needed to impose peace on both sides.

Israel’s continued policy of creating facts on the ground, building and expanding settlements and controlling the water resources is being met by a Palestinian reversion to an armed struggle. More and more people are joining the ranks of Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Things will get worse in 2006 because Israel has nothing to offer the Palestinians.

The Egyptian situation has improved in one questionable respect: the Arabs no longer accept Egypt as their leader. Otherwise, the brief flirtation with democracy is no more than a blip on the pages of history. President Husni Mubarak won a fifth term despite a low turnout of about 20% of eligible voters, and America has stopped promoting democracy in Egypt because that is tantamount to ceding the country to the Islamists.

Recently, the US looked the other way while President Mubarak’s plain-clothes police beat up and, on occasions, raped demonstrators who opposed him. America’s fear of an Islamic takeover of Egypt is dictating its policy. Meanwhile, the standard of living is declining and there is little hope of improvement. The country cannot afford the 500,000 man army which keeps Mubarak in power and the US is unable to do anything beyond backing Mubarak.

Lebanon rejoined the ranks of countries which can’t solve their own problems with violent enthusiasm. The hiatus of quiet which followed the 1970’s and 80’s civil war was shortened by the April 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafic Harriri.

The anti-Syrian Christians of Lebanon used this to force Syria to withdraw from their country but Lebanon remains hopelessly divided. Its present leaders resemble the 1970’s warlords who brought it to virtual ruin. The Christians identify with America and the West while the Muslims adopt an Arab-Muslim identity.

Despite the consequences of Harriri’s murder, it is the invasion of Iraq which has re-polarised Lebanon. The internal divisions are exacerbated by outside interference, America’s support of the Christians and opposition to most Muslim groups (Hizbollah is a terrorist organization).

Syria is in trouble on all fronts. Its economy is in shambles (once an exporter of oil, it is running out of it), the US accuses it of supporting terrorism and wants it punished, the government is under popular pressure to support the insurgents in Iraq and it maintains a costly state of war with Israel. Once a magnet for Arab unity movements, it is isolated and there are signs of a debilitating power struggle with the ruling Allawite minority.

Fragmentation of Syria would destabilize all its neighbours: Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Turkey and even Israel would have to adopt a new peace posture. No two of its neighbours, nor the US and interested outsiders, agree on what kind of Syria should emerge in the future – but all of them fear for the consequences.

Kuwait is rich enough to be a special case. Still, there is no way for it to protect itself against Iraq. Annexing Kuwait is among the very few things on which all Iraqis agree and remaining a protectorate of the US forever is unnatural.

Furthermore, Kuwait is 40% Shia and this traditionally disenfranchised segment of the population sympathises with Shia Iran. What would happen if the US-Iran present confrontation escalates into open enmity is impossible to predict. So, with its fate linked to its two powerful neighbours, the only thing that can be said about Kuwait is the uncertainty of its future.

Jordan, The Sudan, The Yemen and other countries of the Arab Middle East have to contend with poverty, an unsustainable population growth rate, a widening divide between the rich and the poor and governments which do not reflect the will of their people.

In all cases local problems are contributing to the major regional one of an absence of self-perpetrating democratic institutions and governments that can give content to the aspirations of the people to participate in deciding their own fate.

Unlike the immediate past, 2006 will find the United States ignoring the calls for supporting democracy in favour of supporting despotic friends. Because elected governments reflecting the will of the people are likely to be anti-American, the United States has already decided that democracy is not affordable. Expediency and reactionary policies from governments under siege will be setting the course for the year to come.

© Said K Aburish